Politics

The U.K. economy is showing further signs of a long-awaited rebound, but the picture is complicated by the fallout from the Iran war and high energy prices.

US President Donald Trump said this week the US effectively “owns” the Strait of Hormuz, but it might be more accurate to say that in practice, it belongs to the loose cohort of oil tankers that have established what could be a new status quo. While hourly headlines send the price of oil hither and yon, a dedicated core of professional tanker trackers armed with satellite imagery, transponder data, and a host of proprietary AI tools are assiduously monitoring whats actually moving through the strait. Michelle Weise Bockmann, senior maritime analyst at the intelligence firm Windward, told me this week that tracking ships in the strait is getting harder as more of them go “dark” and more commercial satellite imagery is withheld under pressure from Washington. But over the past month or so, she said, clear patterns have emerged. There are roughly 70 very large oil tankers, each capable of carrying $150 million or so in crude, that now make up the core fleet making routine runs in and out. All of these use the southern, Oman-hugging corridor and stay dark during the trip. Most make “shuttle” runs, transferring their load to another tanker outside the Gulf, but some continue on to other global ports. Although they ostensibly have air cover from the US Navy, they are still occasionally attacked by Iran . Thirty-eight of these tankers belong to South Koreas Sinokor Group, which went on a very public tanker-buying spree earlier this year , and 20 belong to various private Greek companies, including Dynacom. The rest belong to state-owned energy companies in the Gulf. All are turning handsome profits despite the high cost of insurance, danger pay for mariners, discounts to traders on high-risk barrels, and occasional drone attack. The UAE was the first exporter during the war to take a chance on the route, and in previous months was the source of two-thirds of the oil getting out that way. Now Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have followed suit, and the UAE accounts for less than a quarter of the volume. “Theyre all scaling up against a backdrop of very degraded maritime security conditions, which illustrates the importance of this route now,” Bockmann said, especially as other egress routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal come under fire. The total volume of crude leaving through the southern route is about 5 million barrels per day on average over the past month, by Bockmanns reckoning. Thats about a third of pre-war volumes, and about half of what US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday . Bockmann acknowledges that some oil could be slipping out undetected either along the Omani or Iranian routes; as Bloombergs Javier Blas noted , even one clandestine supertanker would push the average closer to Wrights. Either way, its more than enough to be worrisome to Tehran, Bockmann said, whose leverage with the US is inversely correlated to outbound oil flows. For that reason, public statements of progress notwithstanding, Bockmann is skeptical Oman and Iran will be able to finalize a deal on new shipping lanes: “If Iran wants to maintain its leverage, they have to shut down that southern corridor. If Oman wants to uphold the principle of freedom of navigation, they have to keep it open. So we have a massive impasse.” In the meantime, the current tanker status quo will likely drag on, she said, with great risk and reward for those shipowners, and their crews, willing to run the gauntlet. And Washington and Tehran will try to run down each others tolerance for economic pain. But Trump is the only player with an election looming in which energy prices could become a decisive factor.

The UK government says it is "disrupting and deterring shadow fleet vessels" in accordance with the law.

Primary results this month in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin paint a muddled picture of just how far to the left Democratic voters want their candidates to be come this falls midterm elections.

NPRs Leila Fadel speaks with Democratic political advisor, Faiz Shakir, about the partys political platform after the wins of this weeks primaries.

The New York Times Maggie Haberman tells me 70% of President Trumps mindshare ("maybe plus or minus 5%") goes to his gilding, construction, renovation, renaming and tribute projects. "He is spending a huge amount of energy, mental and otherwise, on these renovation projects, beautification projects around Washington, and then monuments to self," Haberman told me for Axios "Behind the Curtain" video series . "[T]here is no precedent in U.S. history of a sitting president devising such endeavors in their own name." Why it matters: That mental map by Haberman - co-author with Jonathan Swan of " Regime Change ," which has sold 600,000 copies and on Wednesday hit seven weeks at No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list - is a Rosetta Stone to what motivates and fascinates Trump. "What interests him are things that you can see and touch," she told Axios. The backstory: Haberman had earlier made the 70% estimate about Trumps mindshare during an interview with her Times colleague Ezra Klein, saying that its "a legacy thing." Maggie and I worked together in the early years of Politico. Her relentless reporting has made the New York City native a top expert on how Trump thinks. So I asked her to unpack her eye-opening stat: Zoom in: Haberman and Swan visited Trump in the Oval Office in March for an hourlong interview for the book, which is now in eight printings and is the nonfiction bestseller of the year. "It was very clear," Haberman recalled, "what his mind was on while we were there. And what it was not really on was the war," which hed launched just over two weeks earlier. " He didnt really want to talk about that. He didnt really want to talk about policy specifics. He wanted to describe himself as winning. And he wanted to show us how he had remade Washington." Behind the scenes: "You would think that on the 17th day of the war that he would have maps of the Middle East or maps of troop deployments - who knows," Haberman continued. "He picks up these pictures, and [theyre] of maple trees. And he says: I am choosing maple trees for the White House. I am good at picking trees. Im paraphrasing here, but that is pretty much what he said." "Under that were designs of the ballroom. And he starts talking to us about the columns and how some of the columns are evocative of Rome. And then on the other side, the columns are evocative of Athens. And hes happy that they are a little bit either wider or more spaced apart or both than the columns at the Supreme Court. And that was like the first 15 minutes of this hour that we had." Go deeper: Share the video .

Voters cast their ballots on Thursday in a local English election pitting Nigel Farage against his main challenger, a comedian dressed as a trash can, in a test of opposition ‌to the Reform UK leaders brand of populist politics. Our correspondent in London Benedicte Paviot tells us more.

House Democrats who have comfortably held their seats for decades are suddenly finding the ground shifting beneath their feet as primary voters revolt against the partys old guard. Why it matters: The anti-establishment revolution that has swept Democratic primaries this year is poised to drastically alter the makeup of the party caucus and Congress as a whole. Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) became the latest victim of this trend: The 78-year-old lost his primary by more than 20 percentage points to 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin . Larson emerged as a top target for the Democratic youth brigade after he suffered a highly publicized freeze-up during a House floor speech last year that he later said was due to a complex partial seizure . By the numbers: Larson is one of seven House Democrats who have lost their primaries this year - five of whom are past retirement age. Reps. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), 69, Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), 70, and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), 71, all lost challenges to younger opponents affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), 78, lost to 38-year-old freshman Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas) after the two were placed in the same seat by GOP-led mid-decade redistricting. These losses, along with the ousters of Reps. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), make 2026 tied with 2012 as the worst year for Democratic incumbents in primaries in the 21st century. What theyre saying: " Democratic voters are hungry for a new generation of leaders who can credibly argue theyll fight for change," Amanda Litman, founder of progressive group Run For Something, told Axios. Bronins defeat of Larson - who positioned himself as the progressive in the race - shows that "sick of the status quo cuts across ideological lines," Litman said. "We have a generation of younger people who are fed up," former DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, whose group Leaders We Deserve has been supporting many of these primary challenges, said in an interview. Hogg added: "Generational change and the change of the status quo is the story of the cycle." The other side: "200 Democrats are running for reelection in primaries and almost every one of them had a younger challenger," Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), 71, told Axios. Sherman, who easily dispatched a well-funded challenge from 42-year-old former Biden administration official Jake Levine this year, said he has "always had a younger challenger, its just not a race that you notice." "Youre only going to focus on the five or 10 where the younger challenger got close or won," he said. What were hearing: A senior House Democrat, asked how Sherman survived while Larson lost, said Larson "didnt work [his] district hard" while Sherman "worked his district." "People are demanding change," acknowledged another senior House Democrat. "I personally think members should retire at 75." Between the lines: A clear trend noted by both Hogg and Sherman is that challengers who focused their message on generational change tended to fare worse than those who added left-wing policy positions to the mix. In addition to Sherman, Reps. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), 75, and Ed Case (D-Hawaii), 73, both put up surprisingly strong performances against well-funded, younger challengers who campaigned as traditional Democrats. Said Hogg: "I dont think running ... as a generational change candidate and basically saying, Im young, but I want more of the status quo, is not a winning message, obviously." One dynamic that kept 2026 from being an even worse year for House Democrats whose old age had become a distinct liability is that a huge cohort of them opted to retire rather than face a grueling primary. Reps. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), 79, and Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), 79, as well as Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), 89, had all insisted they were running for reelection before bowing to pressure to drop out. Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) pursued reelection but died at 80-years-old just a month before he was set to face several primary challengers. "Look, Eleanor Holmes Norton, a year ago, wanted to run for reelection, and she had reached a time in life when it was time to retire," said Sherman. "In Congress, youre either going to voluntarily retire or youre going to lose. Whats next: Democrats youth guard is hoping for a few more victories this cycle, with Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), 80, and Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), 71, both trying to fend off challengers. Hogg said he thinks Markey will prevail over his more moderate challenger, 47-year-old Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), telling Axios: "I dont think Seth Moulton is going to win." His group is more excited about Patrick Roath , the progressive 39-year-old attorney running against Lynch, a centrist. Thompson and Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), 81, both have to win November runoffs against their younger Democratic opponents as well. "Matsui has to worry," the first senior House Democrat said. The bottom line: Just because an older member survived their primary this year doesnt mean they will in the 2028 election cycle. Said Litman: "I expect that even the challengers who lost will be back for another run in the future - theyve built infrastructure and name recognition that will help them in the future."

In online focus groups, 10 of 12 Biden-to-Trump voters said they wouldnt automatically think negatively of a politician who identifies with socialism. (Image credit: Scott Olson)

TALLAHASSEE, Florida - Rep. Cory Mills , under investigation by the House and shunned by some of his GOP colleagues in Congress, heads into a primary next week hoping a months-old endorsement from President Donald Trump will outweigh negative headlines and weak fundraising Mills has remained adamant that he has done nothing wrong amid a long line of incidents - including a restraining order placed on him at the request of a former girlfriend - and has defied calls from other Republicans to step down from his central Florida congressional seat. He has compared his own legal woes to Trumps, even as some media outlets have reported he has come under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice. “Im the only person who sits on this stage today who has been endorsed three times by President Donald J. Trump,” Mills said last week at a primary debate in New Smyrna Beach. “Im going to continue to fight for the American people, and thats not what the swamp wants. But I can tell you right now, Ive never cared about what the swamp wants or what the swamp needs.” Mills bid to hang onto the states 7th District is just the latest race in a summer replete with members Ethics concerns hanging over their campaigns. The House Ethics panel derailed GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards reelection campaign last week after recommending censure for inappropriate behavior with female staffers. And Rep. Max Miller , an Ohio Republican, is officially on the ballot this fall after pressure campaigns failed to push him out amid domestic abuse allegations that he denies. But if Mills fends off his three Republican primary challengers, his seat will likely become the top target for Florida Democrats. He has seen his fundraising efforts stagger, and his latest federal campaign reports show that he has less than $70,000 in his campaign account. Republicans are trying to pick up as many as four seats in the state following a mid-decade redistricting push by Gov. Ron DeSantis that reshaped districts held by Democratic incumbents. Mills district did not change under that new map; Trump carried it by more than 12 points in 2024, but only won it by about 5.5 points four years earlier. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already targeted the seat and has lined up behind Bale Dalton, a military veteran who also worked as chief of staff for Bill Nelson when Nelson led NASA. Mills, who is seeking a third term in Congress, is currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee into whether he benefited from contracts from the federal government. In February, Washington police investigated whether he assaulted a former girlfriend. Lindsey Langston, a former Miss United States and Republican state committee member from north Florida, accused him of threatening to release sexually explicit videos when asked for a restraining order. There have been calls to censure or even expel Mills from other members of Congress. Trump gave Mills his “complete and total endorsement” last February, and Mills has leaned into that endorsement in his campaign messaging to voters, including a new television ad the campaign has cut. (Its not clear when that ad will air. Mills does not have any pending ad buys, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.) Trump last week and on Tuesday evening posted repeated endorsements on his Truth Social account in several other Florida contests including governor. But he did not include one for Mills. The three GOP challengers seeking to oust Mills have contended that he has lost trust among Republican voters and other GOP elected officials. Ryan Elijah, a former local television anchor who has led primary opponents in fundraising, has warned GOP voters that backing Mills will result in Democrats flipping the seat in November. “We have a member of Congress who is on the verge of getting kicked out, and thats what you need to understand,” Elijah said at last weeks debate. “Were all conservatives here. But if you look the other way, we are going to get a huge surprise in November.” Elijah, who waved a copy of the since-expired restraining order at Mills during last weeks debate, told POLITICO that he got into the race because of Mills and his “reputation” that has alienated other Republicans. “Were not running against the president, were not running against the party,” he said this week. Elijahs bid to knock off Mills has picked up support from central Florida sheriffs as well as GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos . Luna previously told POLITICO she thought Mills should have resigned from Congress. Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, a law enforcement officer well-known in the region who routinely gets statewide attention, ripped into Mills this past week as a “liar” even though Floridas 7th does not include that county. Judd was upset Mills listed him as a supporter on his website because the sheriff endorsed him in a previous run. Others challenging Mills have leaned into other allegations against him as well. Michael Don Johnson, an Army veteran who also worked for the Pentagon and ran against Mills two years ago, has criticized Mills over his personal life as well as reports alleging inconsistencies regarding his military record. Mills has sharply denied that he has misrepresented his service in order to receive awards he didnt deserve. At last weeks debate, Johnson pushed back against Republicans upset with his criticisms of Mills and said they had “warped minds.” “Im sorry that you folks like lies and falsehoods, you need to go to talk to your preacher,” Johnson said. “Im telling the truth, and Ive been doing it all my life. And defending this man for all the things hes lied about over his years in Congress is despicable. Its disgusting.”

House Republicans are hoping Vice President JD Vances personal appeal to Congress to help crack down on alleged abuse in safety-net programs will revive talks of tackling fraud before the end of the year. But many are skeptical any such bill will ultimately reach the presidents desk. Finding cost savings by rooting out so-called government waste and fraud in Medicare, Medicaid and the federal food assistance program known as SNAP was a top priority for House Republicans, who set out earlier this year to pass another party-line reconciliation package on the heels of last years “big, beautiful bill” and Junes immigration enforcement measure. Many Republicans believe the fraud issue will have salience with voters amid larger concerns about affordability, since it would ostensibly involve returning lost funds to government health programs. Lawmakers spent months discussing ways to tackle the matter, including hosting multiple hearings and meetings with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz to convince moderates and vulnerable GOP incumbents that their constituents would not misconstrue such efforts as gutting key social services. “It should be one of our top priorities,” said Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) in a text message this week, “and I am very much in favor of seeing this in some type of reconciliation package.” Yet with less than 100 days until the midterms, Republicans who were eager to go home to their districts for August recess and fold significant fraud wins into affordability messaging have little to show for it. And some now admit they are at a loss for whether theres any campaign promise on this topic they can make and truly keep. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who chairs a House Oversight subcommittee that at one point was designed to complement the now-disbanded Department of Government Efficiency, said in an interview Wednesday that his fellow Republicans dont “have the guts” to follow through on significant cost cutting measures. “If Congress is listening to the public, then it should” advance fraud prevention legislation, Burchett continued, but added that it would only happen if Vance, or President Donald Trump, “picks up the phone and calls” members directly. A roundtable at the White House last week alongside congressional Republicans may have provided a needed jolt: Vance, the administrations newly-minted “fraud czar,” specifically called on Congress to stiffen penalties for fraudsters, increase data sharing between federal and state governments and give more money for extra staff and technology to federal agencies such as CMS. Several House and Senate Republicans met with the vice president after the roundtable to discuss possible legislative solutions and appeared confident that they would work in tandem to move anti-fraud bills soon. “Weve got to bring accountability back to the system; otherwise, its going to continue to get worse, much worse, at a time we can least afford it,” said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who has pushed for more legislative action on fraud in the Senate, in a video of remarks following the event. "Allowing fraud to run rampant in the United States of America is a slap in the face to hardworking Americans," said Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) at that same confab. Burchett also praised Vances engagement, while House GOP leaders are now actively looking into Vances requests and want to help the administration with the fraud crackdown as much as they can, according to one person granted anonymity to share details of private discussions. The House Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over several health programs, is pursuing several bills to address fraud, including legislation that would impose stricter requirements for states overseeing social programs. Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) said in a statement that the panel was also looking at “state Medicaid programs and identifying ways states can do more to root out fraud that is actively harming patients .” “We need to tackle fraud. It is rampant and I agree we need to work on it in this Congress,” Energy and Commerce GOP Rep. Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee said in an interview Wednesday. In addition to the roundtable, Vance made his pitch to Congress in a piece for The Washington Post . “To protect these programs for the next generation, Congress must help us finish the job,” he said before laying out the legislative requests. Those asks included stiffening penalties for fraudsters, increasing data sharing between federal and state governments and giving more money for extra staff and technology. Yet factions of House Republicans have been pushing for months for fraud crackdown efforts to be included in the third reconciliation bill the White House wants passed before the midterms - so far to no avail. The Republican Study Committee put out a reconciliation framework in January that involved tackling fraud in the health care sector. Soon after Vances call for Congress engagement last week, RSC Chair August Pfluger of Texas put out a statement noting that his groups proposal would codify the Trump administrations anti-fraud measures into law. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the chair of the House Budget Committee, was pitching even larger cuts to safety-net programs for inclusion in a party-line policy package before the second or third reconciliation bills started moving. Then, in the days leading up to the summer recess, GOP leaders ultimately chose to put forward a more narrow blueprint that would free up funding for the Iran war effort and components of the partisan election security measure known as the SAVE America Act - a concession that there wasnt support in the Senate for a more expansive, filibuster-skirting reconciliation package given the slim Republican majority. House Republicans voted for that slimmed-down budget blueprint after leaders promised fraud prevention provisions would be included in a fourth reconciliation bill to be advanced following the November elections. Pfluger didnt have an answer when asked last month why members should believe there will be a path for the proposals later this year that did not exist in July. “Thats a great question for leadership,” he said. House GOP leaders have argued the dynamics will be different after the election. Arrington predicted in an interview before the recess that the lame duck session of Congress would actually be a perfect opportunity to address the issue. Then, he reasoned, House Republicans would be free from the pressures of looming elections - emboldened to proceed if they hold onto their majority, or determined to leave a lasting mark if their days in control are numbered. “The political will that it takes to do any spending reform in 100 days prior to an historic midterm election is very different than the dynamics in the lame duck,” Arrington said. “You get past the election, and you got an invigorated body that is not thinking about their political life.” Even so, a fourth reconciliation bill this year can only happen if the Senate moves ahead with the pending third proposals framework - and there are already doubts among GOP lawmakers that this will happen. Short of that, House GOP leaders could put more individual fraud bills on the floor for votes. Arrington, for instance, has introduced legislation to create a $28 billion fund for CMS to fight fraud by providing more resources for staffing and technology to identify fraudsters faster. But these measures would be political messaging vehicles only, as none would clear the Senates 60-vote threshold and related bills the chamber passed previously have remained in limbo across the Capitol. The House has already passed several that have so far stalled in the Senate. If Republicans do manage to hold onto their majorities in the House and Senate, it could be a centerpiece of the first reconciliation measure lawmakers pursue come January. Still, some Republicans said tackling fraud isnt a guarantee in any of these bills. Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia, when asked if he believed Congress was missing out on the opportunity to tackle fraud by not including it in the third reconciliation measure when they had the chance, said “thats yet to be seen."

Allegations of domestic violence against Congressman Max Miller, which he denies, have raised persistent stereotypes about abuse. NPRs Michel Martin talks to author Leslie Morgan Steiner.